The MoodInterest Theory of American Foreign Policy by Holmes Jack E.;Klingberg Frank L.;

Author:Holmes, Jack E.;Klingberg, Frank L.; [Holmes, Jack E.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: University Press of Kentucky
Published: 2021-08-15T00:00:00+00:00

PRESIDENTIAL LEADERSHIP STYLES

In 1975 Samuel Huntington wrote, “to the extent that the United States has been governed on a national basis, it has been governed by the president.”31 The president indicates the direction of United States foreign policy, but is in turn guided by the public mood. Having gained office in part by virtue of his closeness to that mood, the president, necessarily knowledgeable in the machinations of politics, aims to please the electorate.32 If he fails in this endeavor by being unable to respond to changes in public mood or by initiating policy drastically out of line with the prevailing mood, he will be replaced. There has never been a shortage of potential candidates for president, and the public usually has the opportunity to choose one who is attuned to its liberal mood.

An effective president must be good at interpreting contradictory signals from short-term public opinion. For example, in a nationwide March 1978 poll, NBC News asked about the likelihood that the United States would become involved in a war in the next three years. Over half of the respondents replied that war was likely. A month earlier, the Gallup poll reported that only 9 percent rated foreign policy as the nation’s most important problem.33 Recent public opinion studies show that the importance of foreign affairs jumped for a time in 1980, but that it soon dropped again.34 The president is thus forced to decide how much emphasis to place on foreign policy in order to head off what the majority of people see as an impending threat of war, as opposed to economic problems which have been the nation’s most important concern in recent years. Presidential perceptions of overall mood can be a crucial ingredient in such presidential choices on difficult issues. Thus, in an indirect manner, presidents are prone to follow mood when making foreign policy decisions.

Almost anything that the president does in a decisive manner will increase his public support, at least temporarily, but will this support be sustained upon further consideration of the president’s action by the public? Again, the underlying public mood will have much to say in the ultimate determination of whether the president’s decisiveness was really wise.

A matter that became increasingly important during the post–World War II growth of the foreign policy bureaucracy was presidential management style. The interaction of a president’s style and the public mood indicates that mood plays a dominant role, although style variations can have an impact on policy. Major style considerations include decision-making mechanisms and types of informational advice received by the president. Comparisons of the styles of the Kennedy and Johnson administrations as opposed to the Eisenhower and Nixon administrations provide a clear contrast in styles of managing the large foreign policy bureaucracy that has characterized the United States since World War II.

One view of presidential styles widely accepted by American political scientists is that of Richard Neustadt, who argues that a president should encourage informal competition among his advisors to insure that all pertinent information gets through to him.

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